Ukraine SitRep: Incursion Towards Kursk
August 07, 2024
Yesterday the Ukrainian army started an attack on Russia from the northern Sumy region into the Russian Kursk oblast. Two to three Ukrainian brigades are involved. They progressed some 5 kilometer but immediately took severe casualties and losses of equipment due to Russian air force action. But over night the Ukrainian troops dug in and this morning tried to expand their holdings by attacking the city of Sudzha.
The Russian military says that the Ukrainian attack has been stopped. Reserves in the region have been activated and will remove the Ukrainians from Russian terrain. There is no doubt that this will, within a day or two, be achieved.
The Ukrainian operation makes little sense. It is well known that Russia has plenty of forces in the area. It will not need to stop its attacks in the Donetsk region to counter the Ukrainian forces near Sumy.
In 1943 the German attack on Kursk was launched for a similar reason - to divert Russian forces from attacking in the Donetsk region. It ended in utter defeat.
Even pro-Ukrainian commentators are aghast about this obvious waste of men and resources:
Tatarigami_UA @Tatarigami_UA - 14:23 UTC · Aug 6, 2024The situation in the Pokrovsk direction is critical, with defenses in several areas collapsed and yet to stabilize, largely due to a shortage of personnel. Diverting nearly a brigade to launch an assault on Kursk Oblast, which lacks strategic sense, borders on mental disability.
Well, General Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian military intelligence and reportedly responsible for this operation, is known to be a fool.
There have been rumors for some time that Russia was planing to repeat in Sumy the diversion it has achieved in the Kharkiv region. North of Kharkiv Russian forces crossed the border into Ukraine, progressed some 10 kilometer and dug in. The Ukrainians had to pull troops from the Donetsk front to counter the threatening Russian move towards Kharkiv. The diversion of Ukrainian troops enabled Russian breakthroughs in the Donetsk region.
The current Ukrainian attack from Sumy towards Kursk is giving Russia the perfect pretext to launch another incursion into Ukraine.
Two to three Russian brigades could move towards Sumy, dig in and destroy any counterattacking Ukrainian units. Whatever units the Ukrainians would throw in to stop a Russian incursion towards Sumy would be missing in other parts of the front where they are urgently needed.
Posted by b on August 7, 2024 at 14:52 UTC | Permalink